SCRIPT Creative Retirement -- Great Decisions , April 2009. Chapter 4. Arctic
The video is for those who did not read the book. Says the same things. Nothing new. Nothing controversial. They underplay one point which the book makes, see if you can recognize it.
[video]
The Real Title of the article in the book is : "The Russians are Coming".
MOSCOW (AP) - Friday, 27March (while we were in Energy class.).
"Russia is planning to create a dedicated military force to help protect its interests in the disputed Arctic region. The presidential Security Council has released a document outlining government policy for the Arctic that includes creating a special group of military forces.
"Russia, the United States, Canada and other northern countries are trying to assert jurisdiction over the Arctic. The dispute has intensified amid growing evidence that the shrinking polar ice is opening up new shipping lanes and allowing natural resources to be tapped.
[ The lady in the video says the Russians are cooperative and easy to work with. ]
Lets take the various topics in order in the book.
You probably think of the Arctic as simply the areas north of the Arctic Circle, 66.6 degrees north.
Modern definitions of the Arctic is areas were the average warm month temperature (July) is less than 10C (50F).
This definition loops down to all the Aluetian Islands and Labador to 50N, just 60 miles from US-Canada border.
[ Discuss : EEZ.doc
International.doc ]
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ICE :
While feeling compelled to watch several TV documentaries this week about the melting artic
for this class, I was equally compelled to jot down these thoughts.
People lamenting global warming -- "Look, look, Jane. See the ice melt" This makes me think of the typical NPR headlines saying -- Scientists prove the sun is staying up longer, confirming that a global summer is coming; you are going to get heat stroke and crops will wither. Poor and minorities will be hurt the most.
Have you ever yet seen a program about the benefits of global warming?
[Read: "Ice in Melting".]
Lets discuss timetable. When the great lake formed by melting ice that covered Minnesota and Central Canada broke through into Hudson Bay, the water flowed round the world within a week and water levels rose by 7 meters
in a comparative instance. A lot of people living in the "white zones" got wet. How long is a millennia? Lets say 40 generations. Many of us have lived three of such generations.
Note pages titled Ice Ages and TimeMan. The last big ice ended 7,000 BC an we have been warming since then
with some dramatic effects I've described, but there are cycles within cycles. The last warm spell was between 800-1300AD -- about the sum-of-our-ages ago. Eric and Lief founded Greenland (it is further south than IceLand) and it was called green for a reason -- mostly for marketing reasons, but with some truth to it. The last
cold snap started about 1500 (think Columbus) and ended about 1850 (think Civil War). A 160 years ago is a little
over two times your lifetime. The point is that Global Ice Ages and shorter Warms are not on astronomical time scales ; they are within our age of human-kind. We are in a Global Warm age (interglacial) and in a Warm Period (interstadial) within that Warm Age. In the last such warm, Greenland was green. " Of course, it is warming. "
Hint: The first and the final stages of Ice Age reversals tend to be dramatic. Seven meters in a week when the Canadian Lake overflowed into the Atlantic. People now are talking about a foot or two by the end of the Century. They are 'pikers' 1 in their thinking of what could happen in a final heat wave. And nobody talks about the sudden chilling effect when ocean currents change. Is that ten years away or ten thousand years? We don't know.
Fighting the inevitable is wasteful. Be caseful about asking world governments to do "something" ; a new study this week says hurricanes are caused by lack of African dust storms. Our government might do something stupid like generate smoke to hide the sun's rays to cool the earth.
T'is better to profit by the good aspects of those conditions. Go plant crops, plan outdoor events -- and do something to counter the undesired effects -- buy summer clothes, put on suntan lotion when you need to.
Are there other good things about global warming? Arctic ice is melting, the reroute of some shipping will save 6,000 miles by shipping goods from Europe to Asia in being almost directly on a great circle route, rather than going down to Panama and back up again with every shipload.
Think personally. Which are you more likely to want to do? Pet a white bear for the few seconds before your arm gets ripped off? Or to plant typically southern flowers to enjoy for months each year.
By the way, there are estimated 25 thousand Polar Bears and only 35 hundred Kodiak Bears. One has a press agent; the other does not.
Then the commercial. "These documentaries are not inexpensive to make, you must pledge to NPR."
Have you ever noticed that almost all of Public Radio and some of Public TV is all about gloom?
Have you ever heard or seen a documentary of what you can expect to enjoy about global warming? Have you?
I am encouraged and am glad to see milder winters. Aren't you glad Spring is coming?
Global Warming is not a hoax. It is natural and inevidable The presentation made about it to the public by AlGore IS a hoax. The world will be warmer 100 years from now -- not matter what we spend on trading carbon credits and transferring wealth from industrial to jungle countries.
Which is better, to spend trillions for global climate control, carbon emissions that is slightly correlated with temperature and that will have negligible effect 100 years from now. Or to address problems as they occur
to actually improve things now and in the future. Lets try two exercises:
[Class Exercise:]
[Class Responses:]
DOCUMENTARIES
The Skeptical Environmentalist’s Guide to Global Warming.
IPTV World, Ch 11.3 -- This Sunday Mar 5 , 9:pm,
Repeated Tuesday Mar 21, 6:30pm [???]
Broadcast Date: May. 22, 2008 [???]
Duration: 52:18 (Full Program)
Also in Transcript (RTF) form.
Bjorn Lomborg, author of "The Skeptical Environmentalist" and "Cool It", is the director of the Copenhagen Consensus Center and an adjunct professor at the Copenhagen Business School.
In 2004, TIME Magazine named him one of the "100 globally most influential people," and the UK's Guardian newspaper recently named him one of the "50 people who could save the planet."
An environmental conservative, Lomborg has questioned the priority given to solving global climate change, arguing that we should first focus our resources on more immediate concerns, such as fighting malaria and HIV/AIDS and assuring a safe, fresh water supply. Mr. Lomborg appears as a featured speaker at Iowa State University's "World Affairs Series".
This Copenhagen Conference addressed all kinds of Great Decisions issues. Reoccuring theme is global
warming. There are several icons to click on at
http://theblackcordelias.wordpress.com/2008/10/19/global-warming-the-copenhagen-consensus/
1. 5-minute interview
2. 17-minute lecture : What about prioritizing
Global Warming & The Copenhagen Consensus.
Bjorn Lomborg: "Our Priorities for Saving the World" -- on YouTube
YouTube
Other Great Decision-like video sources -- http://www.ted.com/
Definitions:
We know that "undocumented" really means "illegal"
sensible, fair, bipartisan,etc. means -- adoption of my idea
investment -- spending
subsidy -- spending
progressive -- spending
be more involved -- spending
move foreward -- spending
your fair share -- spending
spending == tax me
1 .
Follow up : 20May 2009. --
You will recall that I said that 20 foot rises in sea level were typical of the last interglacial warming and that those currently making predictions of a 2-foot rise are "pikers".
MIT News Office
The most comprehensive modeling yet carried out on the likelihood of how much hotter the
Earth's climate will get in this century shows that without rapid and massive action, the
problem will be about twice as severe as previously estimated six years ago -- and could
be even worse than that.
Also recall, the answer is not carbor credits and punitive paper transactions, but to stop subsidized building on shorelines and to do other physical things like investing in solar power research so that people can afford to use it and will want to, not just trying to shame people into "green" behavior.