6.Handouts,Copenhagen Consensus

Copenhagen Consensus Handouts
Some Issues, 2012
Working Draft -- changes daily

The 2012 Copenhagen Consensus

The 2012 Copenhagen Consensus proports to use pure economics to prioritize. Lets look some of the key topics.and look for non-economic factors.
SUBJECTS Benefits to Cost Ratio
Education: 9:1
Armed Conflict 5:1
Climate Change: 9:1
BioDiversity: 5:1
Natural Disasters: 4 to 35:1
Population : 90 to 150 :1
Water & Sanitation 40:1
Infectious Diseases 20:1
Chronic Diseases 10:1
Hunger&Malnutrition 8:1
Corruption and Trade Barriers   90 to 180:1

Population Growth

Contributors. Rapid increase in longevity. In 50 years lifespan increased from 51.2 to 67.9 years. Infant and maternal death rate have declined substancially. Global per capita food production has grown. Proportion of population living in poverty declined.

Global population of 7 billion, the last billion added in only 12 years.
[There were only a few thousand H. Sapiens 60,00 y.a. and in danger of extinction.]

Sub-Saharan African nations make the dominiate contribution of world population growth. These are among the poorest and also having weak institutions to manage population growth. Such high fertility countries, while making up 13% of world population, account for 38% of annual world growth. Nine such countries are expected to triple population in the next 50 years. Twenty-five percent of these woman would like to limit family size, but don't.

Benefits include improving womens' general health and long term servival, fewer materity deaths and fewer motherless children, participation in labor force and earnings, as well as child health.

Solution: Availablity of Family Planning. Noted that some households easier to reach with family planning services and recommends focus on these households first. Note the economic priority argument rather than need.

Of the few attempts and studies of the effects of making family planning available have been far less sucessful than expected due to other considerations that are neitither easily nor non-invasively changed.
[Reasons? -- custom, religion, need for labor, desire for old age assistance, manpower for army, market development, ... Note: China's suceess was very invasive, -- jail.]

Half of the expert evaluators were silent on population; the other half found that results were iffy at best and sucess to be insufficently documented to warrent inclusion in the top ten category, but called for large scale studies to provide better evidence before large investments are warrented.

Climate Change

Only two alternatives are considered. A low carbon tax can raise money of between $1 and $9 per dollar spent. But how should it be spent? A high carbon tax is counter productive. Recommenation is to start low and gradually raise. Seems reasonable to spend it on green energy research the second alternative.
[Note that carbon trading is not included – this is purchase of right to pollute, which is stupid.]

The world will adapt to change by chosing different plants in agricultue and in selection of housing. Poor countries will not have the ability to make these adaptions and will need aid in education, health and economic development. [Once again, the smart have to bail-out the dumb.] New research may find solutions, such as spraying seawater to create whiter clouds to reflect sunlight way from earth.
Benefits per dollar about 9:1
[During periods of global cooling, graphite was to be sprayed on glaciers to attack solar heat. 1990]

Corruption

Recommendation is transparency of government spending with amounts spent published in newspapers so that public can monitor. [This requires freedom of press and investigative reporting.] Likely to remove the most corrupt practices from governement to private company admistration of the most significant areas.
[Cost is low except to those murdered into silence. And potential benefits high]

Removing Trade Barriers

Implimentation of the Doha Round of World Trade Organization for free trade offers global benefits to $64 trillion for costs of $400 billion if only countries would show the political will. Talks collapsed over agricultural subsidies. Reconviened December 2013 in Bali to address a portion of the issues to report back by year-end 2014. [All politics is local]

Water and Sanitation.

One alternative considered, Reinvent the Toilet 1.8 billion people poop in the open. Even in urban areas, more than 2 billion people in the developing world lack access to services and infrastructure for the safe disposal of human waste (The World Bank, 2003) The firsr flush toilet patent was issued in 1775. Development of the Green Toilet challenge is to use no water or outside electricity and cost less than 5 cents per person per day.

Disease.

The 2004 conference stressed AIDs.
The 2008 conference stressed Malaria and TB.
The 2010 Malaria, again.
The most recent 2012 Consensu notes that the Malaria parasite has developed a resistance to the effective, inexpensuvem and widely available drugs that have previously provide an important partial check on the high levels of malaria child deaths in Africa. Growing drug resistance may not be able to bring TB under control. And vacinations for rotavirus might save one million children a year.
    Another priority is deworming 300 million children.

An international consortium is addressing 17 neglected tropical diseases. Bill Gates organized the heads of 13 of the world's largest pharmaceutical companies and WHO. The Gates Foundation committed $363 million over five years and a further $50 million, together with US$50 million from the Children's Investment Fund and US$120 million from the World Bank. Eboli was not included.

URL: http://www.manorweb.com/creative/2015/issues2012.html
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